Rwanda's first multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections

since independence are scheduled for November 2003. The elections

will mark the return to normal political activity which was suspended

after the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) took power in 1994,

ending the genocide in which up to 1m Tutsis and moderate Hutus

were killed. Since then, a controlled form of political activity was

allowed in which parties that had been elected before the genocide

were allowed to resume their seats in parliament but were banned

from campaigning or engaging in "normal" political activity. The

elections are to be preceded by a referendum on a new constitution in

 late May, which is expected to be approved by voters

without objection or much enthusiasm. The government has promised

free and fair elections, and the voting is indeed likely to be relatively

transparent and free of noticeable coercion. However, the transition

to open, multiparty politics is being tightly managed by the RPF to

ensure its own victory.
As a result, there is concern that even as the government opens the

political space formally, it will be shutting it down privately through a

number of undeclared mechanisms and strategies. First of all, the

current ban on party politics outside parliament will remain until after

the constitution is ratified by referendum, giving political parties just

five months to prepare for the elections. The state authorities will also

 keep a close eye on the RPF's political competitors once campaigning

starts, and will act swiftly against any deemed to be promoting ethnic

division. The new constitution gives the government extensive powers

to rule against those that it claims are acting against national unity,

and these ill-defined powers will be used by the authorities to

neutralise those that challenge the RPF's political hegemony. The

domination of political power by Tutsis -- one of the main

issues that actually motivates debate -- will remain an "untouchable"

issue before and after the election. As a result, it will be hard for the

other parties to differentiate themselves from the RPF. Meanwhile, the

 main rival to the RPF, the Mouvement democratique republicain (MDR)

which ruled from independence until 1973, is consumed by internal

division and it is unlikely that the party will even unite behind a single

candidate for the presidential election.
A convincing RPF victory is expected in both the presidential and the

parliamentary elections and, though some human rights organisations

are bound to challenge their democratic legitimacy, diplomatic

observers and the international community will endorse them.

Following the RPF's victory in the elections, there will be no break in

continuity with the policies of the current administration. The weak

opposition will be contained and an ever shrinking elite will retain its

political dominance, as it points to the election result as proof of

multi-party democracy and power sharing.
Below the surface, those that break with the ruling elite will head for

exile, joining the many that have already done so. Exiled politicians

remain dispersed and weak, but are starting to join forces, and will

pose a political challenge one day, particularly if they can secure a

powerful backer. But this day seems far off, and the RPF will remain in

power for many years to come.
Political scene: Elections will be held in November 2003

The presidential and legislative elections will be held in November

2003, according to the national electoral commission (REC) which was

 itself finally confirmed by parliament in February. All Rwandans of the

diaspora will be entitled to vote, according to the REC, provided they

are not registered as refugees, which estimates the total electorate

to be around 4m. Those living inside the country will vote at 1,600

polling stations, watched by 350 invited international election

observers. President Kagame has not declared that he will be a

candidate, but he is expected to be the choice of the RPF. The

country's next largest party, Mouvement democratique

republicain (MDR), is in disarray, plagued by factional disputes, which

many suspect have been fomented by the RPF (November 2001, page

13). The leadership of the MDR is contested by Celestin Kabanda and

Emmanuel Twagirumukiza, who both say that they will stand as the

MDR's candidate in the presidential election. However, Mr Kabanda is

reported to have been expelled from his party -- a further sign of its

internal division. A former prime minister Faustin Twagiramungu, who

has been in exile in Belgium for several years, has also said that he

wants to stand for the presidency.
However, the government has said that Mr Twagiramungu cannot

become a candidate unless he returns to Rwanda.
Another potential heavyweight candidate likely to be prevented from

standing is a former president, Pasteur Bizimungu, who leads Parti

democratique pour le renouveau (PDR), but has been in prison since

mid- 2002 on charges of stirring up racial division (August 2002, page

13). Despite pleas from human rights organisations, the ban on party

political activity imposed in 1994 will be lifted only after the

constitution has been ratified by referendum in late May, giving

political parties just five months to organise themselves, raise funds,

and campaign for the election. This gives the well-organised and

relatively wealthy RPF an enormous advantage over its

rivals. In late 2002 the International Crisis Group (ICG), a

Brussels-based think tank, published a report stating that the

advantages for the RPF that are built in to the system indicate that

the transition to democracy is spurious and that the legacy of the

1994 genocide is being manipulated to perpetuate the grip on power of

 a small elite. The report called on the international community not to

 support the elections (February 2003, page 14). However, the ICG's

call appears not to have been heeded by donors, many of whom are